For weeks now, the world has waited with bated breath for President Donald Trump to decide whether the United States will continue to collaborate internationally to reduce carbon emissions and prevent the worst impacts of climate change. Since his inauguration, he鈥檚 repeatedly delayed making a decision on whether to fulfill his campaign promise of leaving the Paris Agreement, the international climate accord that aims to limit Earth鈥檚 temperature rise to 2掳C (and ideally 1.5掳C). Without urgent, significant action, like the Paris Agreement, the planet will be irrevocably transformed, with some of the worst potential effects including flooded coastlines, dead and dying coral reefs, increased droughts and wildfires, wildlife extinctions鈥攁nd tragic human impacts that will hurt the disadvantaged most.
For most people, this wouldn鈥檛 be a difficult decision: 195 countries have already signed on, and last week, the world鈥檚 economic leaders (excluding the United States) at the G7 summit in Italy. Major corporations鈥 Apple, Morgan Stanley, Intel, Unilever, and Microsoft, to name a few鈥攁re all committed to climate action. These include and other oil and gas companies, and even . Human rights and environmental organizations, including 爆料公社, want the United States to remain in the agreement to spare needless destruction to people and wildlife, present and future.
Despite this overwhelming support, Trump today announced that the United States will exit the Paris Agreement. In his speech in the White House Rose Garden, he expounded on an unfounded theory that the Paris Agreement is designed to hobble the nation by undercutting its fossil-fuel industry and redistributing its wealth to other countries.
鈥淚 cannot in good conscience support a deal that punishes the United States, which it does,鈥 the President said. He boasted of the 鈥渉ighest standard of environmental protection鈥 and promised to 鈥渨ork to ensure that America remains the world鈥檚 leader on environmental issues,鈥 even as he signed an order to exit from the unprecedented environmental accord.
In his speech, Trump didn鈥檛 specify how the United States would technically exit the agreement; the official pathway takes four years after the accord entered into force, which places the exit date as November 4, 2020, the day after the next presidential election.
The United States is the world鈥檚 second largest emitter of carbon, responsible for some 17 percent of global emissions, and so an important partner in any climate agreement. Its official exit means that the nation will no longer be held to its pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. It also removes the United States from diplomacy and trade related to climate change and renewable energy, and reduces its standing in the international community.
But a U.S. exit doesn鈥檛 necessarily doom international climate action. That鈥檚 because the Paris Agreement was designed to withstand the exit of a major world power鈥攁s long as enough of the international community persists in their efforts. Today鈥檚 announcement will ultimately test the strength of the pact itself, and whether the international community can stand up to the administration and its 鈥淎merica First鈥 doctrine, which Trump said he would wield while trying to renegotiate a new deal for any future U.S. involvement in the agreement.
The Paris Agreement鈥檚 written goal is to cut carbon emissions, but the path to reaching that goal is transitioning the world toward a renewables-based economy. That will require extensive investment, technological development, manufacturing, and distribution鈥攕o much that countries can only succeed if they share the load over many decades.
In December 2015, at the COP21 meeting in Paris to draft the treaty, the authors of the accord estimated how much global buy-in the pact would require to power this transition. The authors figured that as long as half of the world鈥檚 economy and roughly a quarter of the countries are committed to renewable energy, they鈥檇 be able to work together to make it happen. So they came up with a number: 55. For the Paris Agreement to enter into force (in other words, when all members of the pact agree to respect it), 55 countries representing 55 percent of the world鈥檚 carbon emissions had to ratify the accord and submit their pledges detailing how they plan to reduce carbon emissions and by how much.
After the United States formally exits, 143 countries representing 65 percent of the world鈥檚 emissions in the accord鈥攎ore than the target.
The U.S. exit will thus test the will of the international community to see Paris through without the United States, and world powers are posturing as though they intend to do so. Yesterday, reported that the European Union and China plan to announce 鈥渁 green alliance to combat climate change and counteract any retreat from international action by Donald Trump鈥 later this week鈥攁 public doubling-down on the Paris pact.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration seems to be doing everything in its power to ensure that the U.S. economy is left out of the global transition to renewables. In addition to beefing up the oil and gas industries鈥攂y rolling back the Clean Power Plan and that would prevent pollution, for starters鈥 the Department of Energy is put fossil fuels at a disadvantage, . These subsidies were put in place to encourage the development of wind and solar industries here in the United States, and the study could serve as justification to undo them.
Those actions don鈥檛 make the U.S. climate movement hopeless; it just means that the onus to reduce U.S. emissions will fall on citizens, states, and local governments without help from the federal government.
Already around the country, states and cities are and passing laws to meet them. After Trump's address, 61 U.S. mayors to uphold the goals laid out by the Paris Agreement, while the governors of Washington, New York, and California . California is leading the effort in other ways, too: Yesterday its State Senate to produce all of its energy from renewable or zero-carbon sources by 2045. Twenty-eight other states plus Washington, D.C. have set similar renewable energy standards. Many corporations have followed by setting their own reduced emissions targets.
All of these efforts ensure a U.S. market for renewable energy sources, which are already thriving. Solar and wind prices are falling fast, and last year the compared to the year before.
Even though Trump is having the nation exit the Paris Agreement, the American people and local governments can still make a difference and help the countries that remain commited to the pact curb global emissions. If the international community holds it together and millions of U.S. residents commit to climate action locally, Trump may end up being a catalyst for the climate action that he so decries as unfair to American interests.